Pregaming Tonight's Lost and a Programming Note

Hey everyone,

First a quick note. I've got some very important business to take care of tonight, so I'm not going to be watching Lost live. That means you can expect a recap either some time over night, or Thursday afternoon. The good news: instead of being subjected to my crackpot theories, you'll get to hear crackpot theories I stole from others!

Now onto business. What I'm going to be discussing is based on the promos, so if you don't watch those, then what is about to follow will be spoilery. However, I am only going to be speculating, so I won't actually be spoiling any major twists.


Still there?


All right, so given what we heard from the promos and this week's title (This Place is Death) it sounds like someone's not going to make it through tonight, so let's break down the odds of who is most likely not to survive the episode with an old-fashioned Death Pool:

Charlotte - 2:1 - The most obvious candidate, Charlotte is the least interesting of the Freighties and she's been the sickest the longest. However, there's still a big mystery about her (the fact that she was born on the island) and having an anthropologist around would seem like a good idea if the writers want to start exploring any ancient civilizations who liked to build statues with four toes and frozen donkey wheels. That being said, the island's time skipping could provide a way out for both of those.

Penny - 4:1 - They can't really do it, right? Sure, Desmond's taking her to LA, the current whereabouts of revenge-crazed Ben Linus. And sure, he's going to be visiting with a woman who is, in all likelihood, Ben's collegue Eloise Hawking. But they can't kill Penny, right? They aren't that cruel, right?

Lapidus - 7:1 - They've got to something with Frank eventually and killing him would up the tension and stakes for the Oceanic Six. I think this may be a very strong sleeper pick.

Ben - 10:1 - Ben makes the list this high because we know he's about to have a gun pulled on him by Dark Sun, but come on. They aren't going to off the show's best character.

Locke - 20:1 - We know he's got to die at some point. However, since we're about two weeks away from an episode titled (spoiler alert) The Life and Death of Jeremy Bentham, I think he's good for now.

Miles/Juliet - 25:1 - They are also sick, but they're not going before Charlotte does unless its by some other force.

Rose/Bernard - 25:1 - Whatever's going on with them, I can't imagine its good, but I also think it would be a little too sudden and anticlimactic.

Sayid - 30:1 - Of the Oceanic Six, he seems like the one with the least amount of story left to tell and we know there are people trying to kill him. But I doubt it.

Jin - 40:1 - They wouldn't bring Jin back just to kill him the next week. Except that they did have Locke save Eko's life only to kill Eko one episode later. But back then the writers had a lot more time to kill.

Sun 45:1 - Sun's probably safe at least until she reunites with Jin. But crossing Widmore doesn't seem like a great idea.

Desmond/Hurley - 50:1 - God, wouldn't that be terrible?

Faraday - 60:1 - He's not going anywhere until the time travel stops.

Hawking/Alpert/Abaddon - 75:1 - Could any of these fan favorite side characters meet their demise?

Rousseau - 100:1 - OMG! THE PAST CAN BE CHANGED!!!!

Aaron/Charlie - 500:1 - You know, time travel hasn't alienated enough of our audience, so let's kill some babies.

Jack/Sawyer/Kate - 1000:1 - Come on, how would the writers fill the non-time travel half of the show without these three?

So that's it. Enjoy the episode and I'll catch up with you guys later.